Swift Reversal Lower Brings Trading Considerations

The USD/CAD produced a strong amount of selling yesterday, and early price action this morning has the currency pair testing lows not seen since the 1st of September.

The USD/CAD is trading near the 1.358000 mark as of this writing, after opening yesterday’s market session around the 1.36400 level. The ability of the USD/CAD to create rather strong selling momentum yesterday correlated to the broad market, and the price action could be interpreted positively by bearish traders because of a lack of a sustained reversal higher afterward. This opens the door for speculative considerations.

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The ability of the USD/CAD to attack the 1.36000 level yesterday and maintain values beneath this level during yesterday’s trading is interesting. Having spent Tuesday through Friday of last week well above the 1.36000 level, and seeing a high of nearly 1.36950 on Thursday showed that nervous sentiment was heightened in the broad markets. The USD/CAD correlated to other major Forex pairs which saw plenty of strength maintained in the USD last week.

The downward movement in the USD/CAD yesterday, and sideways price action being displayed early today without any strong moves higher indicates that behavioral sentiment may be starting to calm. Tomorrow there will be CPI inflation data from the U.S., and Thursday will see PPI reports too. If these two reports can meet expectations or come in below the estimates this could spur on more selling of the USD/CAD. However, U.S. data has been difficult to gauge the past few weeks and concerns about stubborn inflation remain. Wagering on the outcome of these reports by trading the USD/CAD before the Consumer Price Index numbers are published tomorrow could be dangerous.

  • Last week’s high in the USD/CAD took place after the higher prices of WTI Crude Oil had already been produced earlier in the week.
  • This highlights that even though a stronger energy price could be a reason to sell the USD/CAD because Canada is a large oil producer, it did not produce downward price action last week.
  • The downturn in the USD/CAD yesterday generated power as financial markets appeared to display increased risk appetite.
  • Traders of the USD/CAD may still believe the USD/CAD is within the overbought territory, but the results of the bullish trend displayed since the middle of July are likely to make many traders cautious.

Technically the USD/CAD is near very intriguing short-term support which is resting near the 1.35800 level. This value was attained on the 1st of September after a sudden buying surge took the USD/CAD from a low of nearly 1.34915 towards the current support level quickly. If the 1.35800 support level proves vulnerable and values are sustained below in the near-term, this might spark additional selling of the USD/CAD. Traders however should take into consideration the inflation reports which will come from the U.S. tomorrow and Thursday which might make for volatile conditions.

Current Resistance: 1.35900

Current Support: 1.35770

High Target: 1.36260

Low Target: 1.35310

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