Return to Lower Values before Big Data Week Ensues

The USD/MXN has moved towards its lower depths again, but traders should be cautious today as thin holiday volumes in Forex may cause unexpected choppiness.

Speculators who have been pursuing what has almost been a constant state of bearish price action within the USD/MXN likely remain optimistic regarding their outlooks.  As the USD/MXN begins today’s session the currency pair is near the 18.10600 ratio, but rather quick price fluctuations are present because of thin holiday trading persisting because of the long Easter weekend.


The USD/MXN did not trade below the 18.00000 mark last week. A high of nearly 18.40150 was seen on early Wednesday the 5th of April, but since reaching this peak the USD/MXN has fought its way lower again and is within sight of early last week’s lows. This has happened as thin holiday trading evaporated Forex volumes late on Thursday and made transactions extremely light on Friday before going into the weekend. A low of nearly 18.01400 was seen last Tuesday and although the USD/MXN is certainly above this mark, speculators may believe a retest of lows could develop again.

Traders are urged to be cautious today because thin holiday trading will likely remain the flavor of the day.  While some financial institutions will be trading in the U.S, Forex will mostly remain quiet until tomorrow when most global trading houses return and an increase in transactions is certain to erupt. Speculators’ who want to enjoy quiet conditions which test support and resistance levels today in a calm manner, will likely see a change tomorrow in the USD/MXN. Traders are urged to use solid risk management today to guard against sudden fluctuations which could develop in thinly traded markets.

  • This Wednesday important inflation data will come from the U.S via the Consumer Price Index numbers.
  • Other important data will follow late in the week from the U.S with the PPI report on Thursday, and Friday will see Retail Sales and Consumer Sentiment outcomes.
  • The publications will certainly affect the USD/MXN regarding behavioral sentiment and outlook for U.S Federal Reserve monetary policy.

The ability to the USD/MXN to continue trading near lows and potentially set the stage for a retest of its lower depths seen early last week is enticing. The USD/MXN traded below the 18.00000 in late March and in the second week of the month. However, traders should remain realistic regarding short-term day trading wagers as this week begins. Stop loss orders should be at the ready if a trader wants to pursue lower values and the acknowledgement Forex volumes will be thin today should act as a cautionary flag.  

Current Resistance: 18.13100

Current Support: 18.09200

High Target: 18.16300

Low Target: 18.05200

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